PREVENT: a 10- and 30-year heart risk estimate
The PREVENT equations were published by the American Heart Association in 2024, built from more than 6 million adults. From a few routine numbers they estimate the chance of cardiovascular disease over the next 10 years, and for ages 30 to 59 over the next 30. This page runs the base equations exactly as published.
The tool
How it works
The method and its sources
The equations are the base PREVENT model from Khan SS et al., Circulation 2024;149:430-449 (PMID 37947085): separate equations for women and men, for total cardiovascular disease, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (heart attack and stroke) and heart failure. Cholesterol is converted to mmol/L, blood pressure, kidney function and BMI enter as published splines, and treatment and age interactions are included. BMI enters the heart failure equations only.
The paper built and checked the equations on people aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease, so results are given only inside the published input ranges. The 30-year equations cover ages 30 to 59.
eGFR from creatinine uses the 2021 CKD-EPI creatinine equation, which has no race term: Inker LA et al., N Engl J Med 2021;385:1737-1749 (PMID 34554658), Table 2. A lab may report a slightly different figure if it uses another method.
The optional PREVENT add-ons (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, HbA1c A blood test that reflects average blood sugar over the previous two to three months. and a neighborhood deprivation index) are not included. An estimate also leaves out anything not entered, such as family history, Lp(a) Lipoprotein(a), a cholesterol-carrying particle whose level is set largely by genetics. or a coronary calcium score.
Every coefficient on this page matches the paper’s own supplemental tables (Tables S12A and S12F, the base 10- and 30-year equations), and the paper’s two worked examples, a 50-year-old woman and man, reproduce exactly. The build re-runs those examples on every commit.
What happens to your data
Nothing you type leaves this device. The numbers are worked out in your browser, nothing is sent to EBL or anyone else, and nothing is saved: closing the page clears them.