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Environment

Environmental Exposures: What Lowering Them Has Shown

Air pollution, lead, PFAS, plastics chemicals and microplastics are each linked to disease in studies that measured people's exposure and followed what happened to them. Those studies show who is at higher risk. They cannot show what happens when the exposure is lowered.

For that, someone has to lower it on purpose, at random, and measure the result. This page sets the two kinds of evidence side by side for each exposure, so the gap between them is visible.

The pattern so far: trials can lower exposure, sometimes by a lot. For air pollution, filtration lowered blood pressure over days to weeks. For lead, a first chelation trial reported fewer cardiovascular events and a replication The same finding reproduced by a separate research group. A result seen once can be chance or bias; a replicated one is harder to explain away. trial, which confirmed that blood lead fell, found none. In the largest trials, a lower exposure did not change the outcome.

How this page relates to our grades

Nothing on this page carries a letter. Each card is an exposure, not an intervention, and an exposure being harmful is a different question from whether any particular way of lowering it helps.

Each card states what kind of study each finding comes from. An association is labeled as one, and a trial result is reported with the outcome the trial actually measured.

Fine particle air pollution (PM2.5)

A trial lowered it and a health measure changed
Measured by: Outdoor PM2.5 estimated at each home address, or personal monitors worn by participants
Association (observational Research that watches what people already do rather than assigning a treatment. It can show that two things travel together, not that one causes the other.)
Observational cohort, 60.9 million Medicare beneficiaries, 2000 to 2012

Each 10 µg/m³ of higher long-term PM2.5 at the home address was associated with 7.3% higher death from any cause (95% CI 7.1 to 7.5). Limited to years below the US standard of the time (12 µg/m³), the figure was 13.6% (13.1 to 14.1). Places with dirtier air differ in many other ways, and a cohort cannot fully separate them.

Di, N Engl J Med 2017 · PMID 28657878
Trial that lowered exposure
Randomized, double-blind Neither the participants nor the people assessing them know who received the real treatment until the trial ends. crossover A trial design in which each participant receives both the treatment and the comparison, one after the other, and serves as their own control. trial, 40 nonsmoking adults, mean age 67, Detroit

Three days of portable filtration in the bedroom and living room lowered personal PM2.5 from a mean of 15.5 µg/m³ with sham A fake version of a procedure or device used as the comparison, so participants cannot tell which one they received. filters to 10.9 and 7.4 µg/m³ with the two filter types. Systolic blood pressure was 3.2 mm Hg lower with any filtration (95% CI 0.2 to 6.1 lower). Most secondary measures did not change.

Morishita, JAMA Intern Med 2018 · PMID 30208394
Trial that lowered exposure
Systematic review A review that searches for every study on a question using a method set in advance, then assesses them together. and meta-analysis A study that pools the numbers from several trials into one combined estimate., 10 trials, 604 participants

Over a median of 13.5 days, home air filtration lowered systolic blood pressure by 3.94 mm Hg (95% CI 0.89 to 7.00). Diastolic pressure did not differ (0.95 mm Hg, 95% CI 2.81 lower to 0.91 higher).

Walzer, Hypertension 2020 · PMID 32475316
What is not known

The filtration trials lasted days to weeks and measured blood pressure. No trial has tested whether home filtration changes heart attacks, strokes or deaths.

Smoke from cooking with wood, dung or charcoal

Trials lowered it; the outcome did not change
Measured by: Personal monitors measuring 24 hour PM2.5, black carbon and carbon monoxide
Association (observational)
Observational analysis inside the HAPIN trial, 3,200 pregnant women in Guatemala, India, Peru and Rwanda

Each 74.5 µg/m³ higher average PM2.5 during pregnancy was associated with a 14.8 g lower birth weight (95% CI 0.8 to 28.7 g lower).

Balakrishnan, Lancet Planet Health 2023 · PMID 37164515
Trial that lowered exposure
Randomized trial (HAPIN), 3,200 pregnant women, free liquefied petroleum gas stove and fuel against continued biomass cooking

Personal PM2.5 fell to a median of 23.9 µg/m³ against 70.7 µg/m³ in the control group. Birth weight did not differ: 19.6 g higher in the gas stove group (95% CI 10.1 g lower to 49.2 g higher).

Clasen, N Engl J Med 2022 · PMID 36214599
Trial that lowered exposure
Same trial, severe pneumonia in the first year of life, 3,061 infants

Severe pneumonia occurred at 5.67 per 100 child-years with gas stoves and 6.06 with biomass, an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (98.75% CI 0.64 to 1.44).

McCollum, N Engl J Med 2024 · PMID 38169488
What is not known

Exposure fell by about two thirds but stayed well above zero, so the trial tested a partial reduction. It enrolled young pregnant women and their infants; it does not speak to older adults or to gas cooking in high-income homes.

Lead

Trials lowered it; the outcome did not change
Measured by: Blood lead concentration
Association (observational)
Observational cohort, 14,289 US adults in NHANES III, followed a median 19.3 years

Blood lead of 6.7 µg/dL against 1.0 µg/dL (the 90th against the 10th percentile) was associated with higher death from any cause (hazard ratio How often an event happened in the treated group compared with the control group over the same period. A ratio of 0.80 means 20 percent fewer events. 1.37, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.60) and from cardiovascular disease (1.70, 1.30 to 2.22).

Lanphear, Lancet Public Health 2018 · PMID 29544878
Trial that lowered exposure
Randomized, double-blind trial (TACT), 1,708 adults after a heart attack, 40 EDTA chelation infusions against placebo An inactive substitute made to look like the real treatment, so participants cannot tell which one they received.

The combined endpoint The outcome a trial measures to decide whether the treatment worked, such as heart attacks, blood pressure or a symptom score. of death, heart attack, stroke, revascularization or angina hospitalization fell (hazard ratio 0.82, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.99; P = .035 against a required .036). Death alone did not differ (0.93, 0.70 to 1.25). Of the participants, 17% withdrew consent during the trial.

Lamas, JAMA 2013 · PMID 23532240
Trial that lowered exposure
Randomized, double-masked replication trial (TACT2), 959 adults with diabetes and a prior heart attack

Chelation lowered median blood lead from 9.03 to 3.46 µg/L (0.90 to 0.35 µg/dL, the unit used above); with placebo it went from 9.3 to 8.7 µg/L. The combined cardiovascular endpoint did not differ (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.16), nor did death (0.96, 0.71 to 1.30).

Lamas, JAMA 2024 · PMID 39141382
What is not known

The replication trial cut blood lead by about 60% and changed no outcome, in people who already had heart disease. Whether lowering lead earlier in life, or by removing sources rather than by infusion, changes outcomes has not been tested in a trial.

Chelation in children: blood lead fell, nothing else changed →

PFAS ("forever chemicals")

A trial lowered it; no health outcome was measured
Measured by: Serum concentrations of individual PFAS such as PFOA, PFOS and PFHxS
Association (observational)
Nested case-control study inside the PLCO screening trial, 324 kidney cancer cases and 324 matched controls

Each doubling of serum PFOA measured before diagnosis was associated with higher odds of kidney cancer (odds ratio 1.71, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.37). The highest quarter against the lowest gave 2.63 (1.33 to 5.20).

Shearer, J Natl Cancer Inst 2021 · PMID 32944748
Trial that lowered exposure
Randomized, open-label Everyone in the trial knows which treatment they are receiving, so expectations can shape the results, especially for symptoms people report themselves. trial, 285 Australian firefighters with serum PFOS of 5 ng/mL or more, 12 months

Plasma donation every 6 weeks lowered PFOS by 2.9 ng/mL (95% CI 2.3 to 3.6) and PFHxS by 1.1 ng/mL (0.7 to 1.6). Blood donation every 12 weeks lowered PFOS by 1.1 ng/mL (0.7 to 1.5) and did not change PFHxS. Levels did not change with observation only.

Gasiorowski, JAMA Netw Open 2022 · PMID 35394514
What is not known

The trial measured blood levels and nothing else. No trial has tested whether lowering PFAS levels changes any health outcome.

Phthalates and bisphenol A (BPA)

The randomized trial raised exposure instead
Measured by: Urinary metabolites, which reflect the last day or two of exposure
Association (observational)
Observational cohort, 5,303 US adults in NHANES 2001 to 2010, followed to 2015

Adults in the top third of urinary metabolites of high molecular weight phthalates had higher death from any cause than those in the bottom third (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.86).

Trasande, Environ Pollut 2022 · PMID 34654571
Trial that lowered exposure
Randomized trial, 10 families, 5 days of complete replacement meals (21 people) against written advice (19 people)

Urinary DEHP metabolites rose in the replacement group, from a median of 283.7 to 7,027.5 nmol/g, and BPA rose as well. The supplied food was contaminated: ground coriander held 21,400 ng/g of DEHP and milk 673 ng/g. Written advice changed nothing.

Sathyanarayana, J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 2013 · PMID 23443238
Not randomized
Before and after study, not randomized, 20 people in 5 families, 3 days of fresh food without cans or plastic packaging

Urinary BPA fell by 66% and DEHP metabolites by 53% to 56% during the 3 days, and returned when the usual diet resumed.

Rudel, Environ Health Perspect 2011 · PMID 21450549
What is not known

The two studies disagree, and the randomized one is the one in which exposure went up. Neither measured a health outcome, and no trial has.

Microplastics and nanoplastics

No trial has tried to lower it
Measured by: Plastic particles measured in tissue removed at surgery, here carotid artery plaque
Association (observational)
Observational cohort, 304 patients having carotid artery surgery, 257 followed a mean of 33.7 months

Polyethylene was found in the plaque of 150 patients (58.4%). They had more heart attacks, strokes and deaths than patients without detectable plastic (hazard ratio 4.53, 95% CI 2.00 to 10.27).

Marfella, N Engl J Med 2024 · PMID 38446676
Trials

No randomized trial has tested any way of lowering microplastic exposure, either against a health outcome or against a measured level in the body.

What is not known

The finding comes from one observational study. Patients with plastic in their plaque may differ from the others in ways the study could not measure.

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